Nigeria's Inflation Rate Mystery: Numbers Don't Always Tell The Full Story

Scope 01 Apr 2025

What's Really Going On with Nigeria's Inflation Rate?

Hey there, let’s break this down for you. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently announced that Nigeria's inflation rate dipped to 23.18 percent in February, down from 24.48 percent in January. Sounds like good news, right? But hold on a second. Not everyone is convinced these numbers paint an accurate picture of what’s really happening in the country.

Here’s the thing: despite this apparent positive trend, many analysts are scratching their heads. They’re asking tough questions about the accuracy of the figures and the methods used to calculate them. It’s like trying to solve a puzzle where some pieces seem to be missing.

When Numbers Go Missing: The Curious Case of the Vanishing Report

Now, here’s where things get interesting. Shortly after the report was published, it disappeared from the NBS website. Poof! Gone. This sudden disappearance has sparked a lot of chatter about transparency. Were they hiding something? Did they make a mistake? Or was it something else entirely?

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Well, it turns out the report didn’t stay gone for long. On Monday, TheCable Index noticed the report had been quietly re-uploaded. But here’s the kicker—there were changes. Big changes. The updated version didn’t include the historical data that usually goes back to 1995. Instead, it only showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January and February 2025. It’s like they decided to start fresh, but why?

History Repeats Itself: Another Data Disappearance

This isn’t the first time something like this has happened. Back on January 15, 2025, the NBS website was back online after being down for 29 days due to a cyberattack. Coincidentally—or not—the site went down just 24 hours after releasing a controversial crime experience and security perception survey. Guess what? When the site came back up, that report was nowhere to be found. Vanished like smoke in the wind.

What the Experts Are Saying

Agora Policy, a think tank based in Abuja, is raising eyebrows about the unusual patterns they’ve noticed in the NBS inflation computations. In their report titled “Questions and Insights from the February 2025 Inflation Data,” they pointed out something pretty wild: a sharp and unprecedented decline in the month-on-month inflation rate for December 2024, which hit a staggering -12.3 percent. That’s right, negative twelve-point-three percent. Crazy, right?

According to the newly rebased CPI series, inflation slowed to 23.18% in February 2025 from 24.8% in January 2025, with a moderate month-on-month change of 2.04%. However, using the rebased computations, NBS reported 15.4% as the headline inflation rate for December 2024 and an unprecedented -12.3% as the month-on-month rate for December 2024. But let’s be real here, such volatility is rare in Nigeria’s inflation records. Usually, month-on-month changes are much more gradual. It’s like the numbers are on a rollercoaster ride.

What Does This Mean for Nigeria?

From February to November 2024, monthly inflation changes were stable, ranging from 2.14% to 3.12%. But then, boom! In December, there was this drastic decline. By February 2025, the figures returned to a more typical pattern with a 2.04% month-on-month change. But Agora Policy is pointing out that the steep drop in December 2024, followed by a sharp rebound in January 2025 with a 10.7 percent month-on-month increase, raises serious questions. What’s causing these dramatic shifts? Are the numbers accurate? Or is something else at play?

In the end, it’s important for us to keep asking questions and demanding transparency. Numbers can be powerful, but they can also be misleading if we don’t dig deeper. So, let’s keep our eyes open and our minds sharp. Because when it comes to the economy, the truth is out there somewhere.